14 years have passed after the bloody introduction of troops in Baku. Azerbaijan preserved its sovereignty, stood numerous blows the first of which was Gorbachev's, but staying alone, it lost 20% of its territory and got a million of refugees as a result of Armenian aggression.
After 14 years, the situation in the region is in dynamical equilibrium achieved by efforts of Russia and the US.
These very states, first of all Russia, are key ones in the settlement of Karabakh problem.
The main question is what is the attitude of these countries to the Armenian aggression against Azerbaijan?
The author is not a diplomat and has no information besides that published in various mass media, concerning different negotiations on Karabakh problem. That is why we will apply the method of "black box" widely used in cybernetics, and try to build the model with only input and output data. The input data is Karabakh problem, and the output data is the actual steps of the world powers.
Analyzing these data for the last more than ten years, we can come to the conclusion, THAT NEITHER RUSSIA NOR THE USA ARE NOT CONCERNED ABOUT THE SETTLEMENT OF KARABAKH PROBLEM PROPERLY. Recognizing the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, they do not call Armenia an aggressor. We have occupation but no occupants! Such happens only in the virtual world!
Whereas the activity of Russia in Abkhazia and South Ossetia can be understood, and it is primary, because THESE TERRITORIES OF GEORGIA are on the borders of Russia, and it is the original cause of certain actions of Russia, not always clear support of separatists from Nagorno-Karabakh which is at the other end of the world from Russia, and having no relation to Russia. Clearly, that support of separatism in Nagorno-Karabakh is of purely political nature. It just some mad political scientists follow their lines that only they understand, including Nagorno-Karabakh, in the sphere of geopolitical interests of Russia.
Today, not being afraid to make a mistake, it is possible to say that the relations between Moscow and Baku are ten times better than in days of Yeltsin, but no changes occured in the relation of Moscow to aggression of Armenia against Azerbaijan.
We should say that all CIS countries represented by their leaders also occupy an immoral stand on Karabakh problem, no need to analyze here again, putting in one row the aggressor and the victim. Justice and objectivity - they have long forgotten these words, and some of them, judging by their past, did not know them at all. Here, for example, the political image of one of them, the most odious Akayev which in due time, bypassing all agreements, on favourable terms, repeatedly supplied Armenia with ammunition in great volume, about which Russian mass media wrote.
Tactics of "a double Russian hook", thought up in the Kremlin, works smoothly - Armenia understands that without support of Russia, it will not manage to keep the occupied territories, and Azerbaijan, in the reduced form, thinks how to jump off from the Russian "hook!" The conclusion of this model is the more pressure in South Caucasus, the more favourable for Russia, and it concerned, as one would expect, Russia itself, too.
This pressure, repeatedly increasing, is transferred to the Russia, and not only in its South.
The main conclusion by the method of "black box" on the research on the Karabakh problem is unequivocal. THE PROCESSES OCCURRING IN THE "BLACK BOX" FOLLOW NOT INTERNATIONAL LAWS BUT THE RULES OF POLITICAL UNDERGROUND!
The author by no means wants to insult leaders of the CIS and compare them with Akayev - all of them, unlike Akayev, are strong and purposeful persons. But the fact is that any vital issue which is not even concerning their countries worries them more than the Karabakh problem.
Russia, and it is no secret today, supports separatism in the CIS countries. And separatism in the post-Soviet territory was mainly held up by Russia.
"Manuscripts do not burn". It appears that concepts, which are about 100 years old, do not burn either. As T.Mamaladze writes, on 30 April, 1921 "the military attach? of Russia in Tbilisi General Pavel Pavlovich Sytin sent to the centre his confidential report, having formulated its basic thought as follows. "Russia should attend to restoration its influence in Transcaucasia in new forms. The scheme of delimitation suggested by me, leaving Tiflis, Baku, Batumi under Russian influence, is the best solution of the Transcaucasian problem from the point of view of Russian interests." Further Sytin explains on the example of Georgia, how Russia should "attend" to its interests in the Caucasus. "This territory is of major strategic value for us." Further he summarizes, "The secession of Abkhazia from Georgia is dictated by all reasons. Abkhazia can join Mountain republic (it decided to depart from Georgia) and then, in case of complications, the RSFSR will have before itself a barrier from the sea to the sea... It is a way to divide the Georgian republic into a number of independent units, the more subordinated to the influence of the RSFSR, the lesser are these units, it is worth more attention."
This concept was changed only quantitatively, having added some other formations to it, but the qualitative part was put into practice by the Russian side one to one!
Today, according to different data, these separate formations have 5-8 billion dollars worth armament. Separatists of the whole world taken together hardly have so much armament. In Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transdniestrua, Russia supports separatism frankly, and not so frankly in Nagorno-Karabakh - actually, there is no special need in that, since all is compensated over and above by warm relations of Russia with the Armenia which committed acts of aggression against Azerbaijan.
With the assistance of Yeltsin's Russia, it is not denied today by Russian political scientists either, Armenia occupied 20 % of the territory of Azerbaijan, and Russia, with Putin in power, does not hurry at all to restore justice. Yes, certainly, Putin stabilized the Russian-Azerbaijan relations, but nothing more. There is no sign of condemnation of the Armenian aggression. And it should be regarded as continuation of Yeltsin's policy but already in the civilized form.
In general, we should say that the reaction of some Russian politicians to Beslan tragedy was amazing. Putin used Beslan tragedy for strengthening of his power. For example, after the tragedy on 11 September, Bush allocated 70 billion dollars for antiterrorism struggle, not concerning the country's political system at all.
Unfortunately, as usual in Russia, populism took the first positions in an extreme situation, moreover, in its dangerous form. None of the well-known politicians in this situation recalled, at least publicly, where, in contemporary history of the USSR, terrorism lifted its head.
None of the well-known politicians recalled the role of terrorism in the collapse of the USSR. None of the well-known politicians recalled that in contemporary history, in Karabakh events, the Armenian side committed more than 100 terrorist acts, and the Azerbaijani side not a single, i.e. Armenia was the first in contemporary history to use terrorism on the state level for the settlement of political problems. None of the well-known politicians recalled that in Yeltsin's times the former KGB General Sterligov suggested directly beginning terrorist acts in Azerbaijan following the pattern of NKAO separatists, and no one condemned him.
None of the well-known politicians recalled and had not paid attention then that in the Northern Caucasia secret services of Armenia were recruiting, not without success, terrorists for carrying out terrorist acts in Azerbaijan. This process involved the notorious Zory Balayan.
None of the well-known politicians recalled the first criminal Russian-Chechen war unleashed by Yeltsin.
None of the well-known politicians recalled Grachev giving 1,500 aircrafts and mountains of armament to Dudayev. None of the well-known politicians recalled that federal troops had annihilated several hundreds of thousands of Chechens who had children and relatives.
No one wanted to go into detail of the problem, as usual in Russia.
No one but Putin remembered that unemployment in the Northern Caucasia overstepped all reasonable limits and the average salary is several times (according to Putin) less than in Russia. In his address to the Russians in regard to the tragedy in Beslan, President of Russia Putin mentioned Karabakh as a tragedy that must not recur in Russia. We can only add that the Karabakh evil did not recur either in Russia or anywhere in the world. At the international forum of news agencies, Putin said that the word "terror" has the same meaning in different languages, why do we treat it with double standards?
Indeed, why? Sensible politicians in Russia understand today that all tragic events in the USSR and now, in Russia go back to Nagorno-Karabakh. Putin must know why the USA, which are negative against the separatism in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, at the same time render annual 8-10 million dollars worth assistance to Nagorno-Karabakh. No one wastes their money just for nothing!
Before speaking about international terrorism in Russia, it would be useful to discuss terrorism near abroad.
There are many questions to ask concerning such powerful assistance to Armenia on the part of Russia to the detriment of Azerbaijan.
Apart from common reasoning on the ethnic proximity ("an island in Muslim encirclement") and "southern outpost", there are no other arguments in favour of close relations between Russia and Armenia in Russian mass media.
The first blow on the USSR was struck through Poland. At command, Western countries granted big loans to Poland at its request for the reorganization of its industry. But when it entered the world market with its products they were not purchased, explaining that they did not meet international standards. Production stopped, but the country had to pay interest on the loans. Then "Solidarity" group financed by the West and headed by L. Walesa entered the stage. Having begun with economic demands, they soon passed to political ones. Later, this pattern would be followed by Karabakh separatists, who found complete understanding among the authorities and some time later when their basic demands were met passed to political ones.
And when the Pope, a Pole by nationality, arrived in Poland, and was met by 30 million Poles, communism in Poland was over.
About ten billions dollars was spent by the USSR to help Poland, but it did not helped it, and the USSR received its first notable economic blow.
Approximately the same scheme was used to strike the crucial blow on the foundations of the USSR. Reagan persuaded the king of Saudi Arabia to reduce oil prices sharply. After that, in only one year, the budget of the USSR received a "hole" in 10 billion dollars.
The USA increased the military help to Mujahidins in Afghanistan, having started to deliver them stringers after which Mujahidins began to shoot down Soviet planes in mass quantity.
The director of the CIA Casey gave to Israel all information on the nuclear centre in Iraq instead of which Israel gave the list of its agents in the USSR which were used by the USA at the collapse of the USSR.
Informal societies were being organized all over the USSR, some of them under the auspices of the KGB and personally the ideological secretary of the CPSU Central Committee A. Yakovlev.
The strongest and most organized of them was Karabakh "Krunk" that had comprehensive support and powerful financial security from different channels, including Western ones.
Today Russia considers its main threat the expansion of NATO along the borders of Russia, and terrorism. The author would add economic threat which is far not liquidated yet, and real Chinese peace expansion in the Far East which gradually covers more and more area in this region. In connection with these threats, there is a question. Does someone, in the top authorities of Russia, really think that in case of situation complication in Russia, Armenia will struggle against NATO for interests of Russia, or today with terrorism? Really, it is not clear to these gentlemen that Armenia is waiting for weakening of Russia to enter NATO where it is awaited with impatience, and as for the international terrorism, Armenia has fine diplomatic relations with it. Really, have these gentlemen forgotten how the Armenian militants smashed the Soviet military bases in Armenia as soon as the USSR staggered? And it occurred in Armenia which had for many years been considered as a stronghold of the Soviet power in Transcaucasia.
Separatists from "NKR" are supported with arms by Russia and economically by the USA. From this support, the USA already have certain geopolitical dividends. And what does Russia have? Does someone in Russia really think that terrorists from "NKR" can seriously affect the construction and operation of Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline in the future?
Whether it is pleasant to someone or not, but to speak today about problems of South Caucasus without mentioning USA and not taking its interests into consideration is unreal.
And, in their actions, having appeared on the Caspian Sea, the USA are extremely pragmatic - only and only interests of the USA. And we should not condemn them for it, interests of the country above all is the principle long established in the USA. If interests of Azerbaijan are observed in this process, it is even better. BUT IT IS NOT THE MAIN AND OBLIGATORY CONDITION!
Whether the Karabakh problem is be solved or frozen, it will not influence strategic and economic interests of the USA, and even if it will, it will be in limits of their main problems. In the near future, the USA will gradually place their military bases in South Caucasus, and the American oil companies return with interest the means invested in the region. These events are only slightly connected with the Karabakh problem. And one more output parameter from the model: the high-ranking officials of the USA underlined time and again that oil contracts are not related with the Karabakh problem.
One should not be so naive to think that the main thing for the USA in the region is democracy and human rights. Democracy and human rights for the USA is a thin toolkit which they use in certain situations very skillfully. In the international affairs, the Americans use all circumstances to their own advantage.
The stand of the USA, Russia and the Western Europe is focused in OSCE.
At the press conference in Baku, the American co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk group R. Perina said, "I consider it important that we should focus the attention on the future, on the aspiration to find the decision, instead of finding out who was the aggressor in the past, it is work for historians. We prefer negotiations".
Here it is! There was no Armenian aggression, no Khojaly, no 20 % of the territory occupied by Armenians, no one million refugees, only negotiations.
After acts of terrorism on 11 September, two thirds of the Americans consider that all Arabs living in the USA must be put in concentration camps. Approximately the same number of Germans, in the thirties suggested treating the Jews in the same way. After signing oil contracts, a number of the countries have considerably changed their attitude to Azerbaijan before, they simply did not notice it before, in the days of aggression from Armenia at support of Russia!
But we should always remember that powerful oil companies solve only their own problems, otherwise they would not survive in more than 200 years. But anything human is not alien to them.
But the Karabakh problem is not the only one in the region; it became the arena of fierce confrontation between Russia, the USA, Turkey and Iran.
A hundred years ago the situation on Apsheron was characterized by Albert Nobel as "dense mixture of oil, blood and policy". Only geography and methods have changed today; the word "Apsheron" is to be replaced with "region" and the policy became more obscure.
Military historians write that Bagramyan used to say, "If there are less than 50% of Russian soldiers in the company, I will not send them to attack." The Armenian side remembered well this statement of Bagramyan in the war against Azerbaijan.
About two hundred years have passed but nothing has changed; the Russian weapon was joined by the international humanitarian help!
Probably, Armenia likes very much to solve the problems on the Russian armour, by means of Russian military bases, Russian weapon and the international humanitarian aid.
BUT THAT UNCONDITIONAL SUPPORT WHICH ARMENIA HAD IN THE BEGINNING OF THE CONFLICT IS NOT AVAILABLE TODAY. Yes, those, who say that even today, there is no fair relation to the Armenian aggression from the international community, are right, but we repeat, today there is no unconditional support!
The attitude of Armenia to its main breadbasket, Russia, has essentially changed.
Aggression of Armenia has brought huge sufferings to Azerbaijan, and for Armenia, it turned into an economic collapse and loss of independence.
For an estimation of a social situation in Armenia, it is not necessary to approach from a standard position of growth or reduction of GDP.
Teymur Baghirov estimates GDP rather seriously.
"While the largest economists of the 20th century who reated the concept of national accounts and GDP," he writes, "treated the concept of gross domestic product very delicately, perfectly understanding its social conditionality. We can remember Nobel laureate Simon Kuznets who pointed out that at original funeral ceremonies, characteristic for Ancient Egypt (food was left for the deceased), it is difficult to define with reference to then Egyptian economy the value of GDP par capita: whether to divide everything produced by the living population of Egypt or by the number of the living and the first generation of the dead?
GDP concept was formed for market economies with rather small public sector functioning in the conditions of democracy. Hence the hypothesis of founders of GDP concept: if someone pays for goods or service, either as a tax bearer or as a consumer, therefore we deal with sensible economic activities which have value.
New approaches are required for such country, unique in its own way, when it is not clear what comes from where and where it goes. When various free aid, various credits, military help, payments of Gastarbeiters etc. are commensurable with the country budget, such index as gross domestic product loses its sense, since some kind of virtual situation emerges. Besides, it is well-known from the Soviet times that Armenia can "skillfully" treat figures; for the purpose of reception more and more credits, they "will draw" any economic situation in Armenia.
With such, new, non-standard, positions the World Bank approached, and it probably is not casual, to the estimation of wealth of the countries of the world: it proceeded not from traditional economic criteria, like the size of GNP, the income per capita or rates of growth of manufacture, and from reinvented index "national wealth per capita". This index includes made capital, natural capital and manpower resources; the later first of all express intellectual potential of the population. 192 countries of the world have been estimated by this rating (See the table).
Table. National wealth per capita in a number of the world countries
Wealth per capita
The chief source of wealth
By this index Russia ranks 53rd. We can imagine its place without natural resources!
If we estimate the situation in Transcaucasia in the light of the above-stated by the new technique of World Bank, then even approximate estimations show that the situation in Armenia is disastrous - no natural resources, and the best minds playing the crucial role in the index "wealth per capita", have long left Armenia. In Azerbaijan there was also "brain drain", but certainly not of such scale as in Armenia. As for natural resources, as they say, no comment. Georgia is in the similar situation, but it has the prospect to become a large transshipment country.
Without the danger to be seriously mistaken, in the table Е, we could make a note in the column "The chief source of wealth", writing "international aid". We should add that 70 % of the enterprises of Armenia are run by foreigners, basically, Russians, and considerable volume of actions is received by them, not at the expense of their investments but for debts of Armenia, and they dividends they probably expect are not economic but political. And Armenia has no reserves in this sphere of economy. This fact is the important missing link which has been not estimated in the technique of World Bank.
Clearly, that according to the technique of World Bank, Armenia has no visible future.
And, not casually, Western countries wish to reduce in one economic sphere Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia to help Armenia. If it happens before the settlement of the Karabakh problem, it will be the death sentence to Azerbaijan on Kaabakh.
The forecasting method on "history recognition" has been invented recently in the USA. In one word, this method is based not on intention reports but on the actual situation for creation of the scenario of the future.
Here is a small but very informative base on Armenia, for "history recognition" of the future of Armenia.
First about demography.
There are almost twice more men than women trying to leave Armenia. The majority of them is at the most efficient age (30-50 years). Emigrants from Armenia are mainly educated; there are twice more people with higher education among them than in the country on the average.
"By 2010 no more than 2 million people will live in Armenia. This quantity of population is insufficient for preservation and replenishment of armed forces of Armenia". Such sensational conclusion is contained in the research of the Armenian political scientist Armen Ayvazyana Basic Elements to the Doctrine of National Safety of Armenia. The author points out that "Armenianhood is now in the situation of system crisis".
"People older than sixty years make today up to eleven percent of the population of Armenia whereas ten years ago this index did not exceed six percent. Academician of National Academy of Sciences Vladimir Hojamiryan considers that this process tends to develop and is based on adverse migratory processes and bad social protection. Appreciable reduction of birth rate is marked at the same time: whereas 81,192 children were born in Armenia in 1988, in 1997 the figures make up only 4,380." It is written not by an Azerbaijan journalist, but Sergey Bablumyan from Yerevan. Last publications from Armenia report that the situation with birth rate is not improving.
Soon Armenia will "solemnly" celebrate the day when it will "enter" the last one million of inhabitants.
According to the United Nations, Armenia ranks second (on absolute value!) in the CIS and 13th of 40 countries of the world in the appeal of citizens to the developed countries of the world for granting the status of refugee.
According to the authoritative organization USAID, the USA, 40 % of citizens of Armenia think of departure from Armenia, and 16 % intend to realize it in the nearest 5 years.
"I can not say," says R. Kocharyan, "that there is active returning of Armenians, but migration process was stabilized (at what level, Kocharyan does not tell. - Author). Many developing countries go through it, for example, Japan in the fifties (Maybe from Nagasaki and Hiroshima? - Author). After a while emigrants returned to the country with new world experience, and it gave a new life to economy."
Only in a hopeless situation, it is possible to say such nonsense; Armenia is not Japan, and the Armenians are not the Japanese! Then again, only once, the Armenian emigrants were deceived, having got on the propaganda of the Soviet power, they returned to Armenia in mases. And, even in this case, many of them subsequently left again for the West as soon as possibility appeared.
Here are some facts from the social life in Armenia.
Experts of the World Bank consider that 44 % of the population lives on the sum below 2.15 dollars per day.
Genie Index which characterizes population stratification has long stepped over the critical mark of 0.45 and reached 0.61.
The Minister of Economy of Armenia said that "51 % of the population of Armenia lives in penury, 16% - in extreme poverty".
"This country grows poorer and becomes empty. Without stability it cannot develop," thinks the French expert Olivier Roir.
"Unlike Armenia, time works for Azerbaijan: it can wait, correctly using the resources and position in the Caspian region. Comprehensive strengthening of Azerbaijan can finally force Armenia to compromise," marks Roir.
It is rather difficult to compare Azerbaijan and Armenia today. Azerbaijan is an independent and self-sufficient state which cannot be said about Armenia.
As for the results of forecasting in the future situation in Armenia by the method of "history recognition", it is made in Armenia in a considerable quantity and by different politicians, the received results are published. They are deplorable for Armenia.
And, in conclusion, some words about database correctness - all sources of the information cited by the author are independent, and many of them are sympathizing with Armenia. Any information from the Azerbaijan sources was not used.
And finally, we know that there is everything necessary in Azerbaijan for the further development of economy - natural riches, and some of them have, taking into account world conjuncture, real chances to make it out to the world market, and highly qualified experts. Armenia has mountains, lifeless rocks, tuffaceous deposits, and vehement hatred for the neighbours. With the account of THE POLICY PURSUED BY RUSSIA IN THIS REGION, Armenia is the perfect partner for Russia, as it considers!
In actions of Russia, in relation to Armenia, the following geopolitical component is accurately traced - the stronger in the military relation (in economic, her especially does not excite) Armenia will be, the more compliant with Russia its neighbours will be, and first of all, Azerbaijan.
And, such approach, at the given stage, suits both parties - Russia that is rising slowly after Yeltsin and Armenia that is falling slowly, after the war with Azerbaijan.
To build any forecasting models in the future for the former republics USSR and, especially, next to estimate conflict situations in region, and their possible development, without an estimation of the future of Russia, is incorrect from many positions. Correlation of the future of the CIS countries with the future of Russia is too considerable and reliable in many respects not to consider it.
Azerbaijan is connected with Russia with a "hot" geographical border, and this border carefully protected from both sides is more important, than, let us say, 7.5 thousand km of the unprotected border with Kazakhstan, and, no one should ever forget it.
"Russia has never been so weak in all its history compared to other major countries than now," Russian political scientists confirm. Whether it is true or not, it is not for us to judge. But that "From the Finnish calm rocks - to ardent Colchis" is an indisputable fact in the past (some politicians think even today that it should be reduced. Thatcher once said, "In Russia 30 million people should remain for oil extracting service". A little increasing the population, Thatcher is echoed by her pupil, the Prime minister of Great Britain John Mager, "...The problem of Russia after defeat in the cold war is to provide with resources the safe countries. But only fifty - sixty millions people are required for this purpose."
Carriers of similar ideas, are and in Russia. "Only time to Gaydar became not on itself: on one of the first sessions of the government, one of its ministers has declared, that the main problem of Russia consists that at us on forty millions people more than is necessary.
Gaydar and Chubays have been convinced, that Siberia, Northern Urals Mountains, Komi or cities behind Polar circle (Norilsk and Murmansk, for example) are such territories where it is not necessary to live at all. Especially - to raise children. To build a day nursery, schools, theatres, stadiums. Only вахтовый a method, as on Alaska: people were from "continent", have removed from the earth natural riches, and in three months - the new landing "- is written by A.Karaulov.
The management of "ardent Colchis", after disorder of the USSR, now trotting, now galloping, with populism elements, longs for NATO, and in "the Finnish calm rocks", remember Russia on deliveries of forest products.
Only one fact - 60 % of the world market "are taken" the USA. For comparison - the share of Singapore in the world market makes 6 %, and Russia-0,6 %. Today, much more value, the geoeconomy, than geopolitics gets - borders of the states, the quantity of the goods, cost of an order of 1,5 bln. dollars daily crosses. In this stream of the goods, from Russia not filled natural resources leave, and come "Bush's leg".
And, nevertheless, certainly, main priorities for the foreseeable future of Russia - oil, gas, ways of their transportation and commodity markets.
Today, and in the foreseeable future, are main painful points of Russia and its main hope.
The oil economy has got to Russia from the USSR. Simeon Weinstock, the president of "Transneft", reminds:
"By and large, today we export as much oil, how many the USSR when extracted 600 million т in a year, and for these petrodollars of veins all Soviet Union". Not only the USSR - which - that got to the brotherly countries of the socialism, the developing countries and the terrorist organisations.
If to take away from Russia its oil and gas, it will appear more poorly Belarus and all oil and gas extraction CIS countries - the core of economy of Russia is oil, gas and other natural riches. And it, in turn means, that the economy of Russia, substantially depends on the prices for them.
The increase in the price at oil at 1 dollar brings to the state budget of Russia, roughly speaking, the income in 1 billion dollars, and directly influences ability of the government to distribute the budget, to pay in the civil servant and to pay debts of Russia to the foreign states.
Experts assert that at the price of 9 dollars for oil barrel, the economy of Russia will begin to fall. The paradox consists in that, as at the high prices for oil, gross national product increase, occurs at the expense of a price difference, instead of at the expense of lifting of various industries - all oil companies try to realize less than oil in the country under the internal prices, and it is more to sell oil under the world prices abroad, that immediately affects on an industry condition, and, especially, agriculture.
The oil factor Russia, as well as the USSR in the past, effectively uses, as an element of economic lobbying.
After Vladimir Putin's visit to India, "Rosneft" on it is unprecedented favourable conditions has sold Indian ONGC Videsh Limited 20 %-other share of participation in the project "Sakhalin-1", and India has received serious discounts at purchase of the Russian planes and tanks. In the Russian press there was a message, that foreign oil projects of "LUKOIL" will be coordinated with activity "Rosobornoexport".
But thus it is necessary to notice, that Russia, in the similar approach, not the pioneer.
Edward Mors and James Richard have counted up, that the State Company of Saudi Arabia "Aramco", on sale of each barrel of oil in the USA, earns almost for dollar less, than in Europe and East Asia. This discount actually represents the grant for the American consumers in $620 million annually. In turn, the USA develop military forces in Persian gulf, that, certainly, also manages completely not cheaply. So, the balance is observed.
Undoubtedly, oil and weapon business in the world and in the future substantially will be коррелированны: for the huge sums of petrodollars, the newest kinds of arms will be bought.
Annually 800 billion dollars is spent for arms in the world a year that corresponds to half of all incomes of a world's population.
Russia, as well as in due time the USSR, widely uses the oil and gas factor, in the foreign policy activity. Putin has signed with the President of Ukraine Kuchma the contract very favourable to Ukraine connected with the Russian oil, gas and their transportation, and at once from the defensive concept of Ukraine, the NATO word, and a ferry between Russia and Ukraine through Kerch strait, destroyed after disorder of the USSR has disappeared, has been immediately restored. So oil changes an essence of concepts, and connects coast.
In many respects, with a number of the European countries, especially with Germany, Russia has warm relations, in connection with stable deliveries of oil and gas in these countries. It is possible to expand this list considerably.
As we see, a range of use of the oil and gas factor Russia, as well as in last USSR, it is considerable.
But deeply those who thinks are mistaken, that the Russian petroleum industry - a core of its economy " is trouble-free "milk-cow".
On Picture 5 world's reserves of oil according to the doctor of sciences, professor of University of Delaware (USA) Sergey Lopatnikov are given.
The picture would be incomplete if the balance of use of these reserves by the consuming countries had not been given.
It is known, that the West European countries Germany, Italy and France import about 80 % of consumed oil from areas of Persian Gulf, the Great Britain, having the oil in the North Sea, imports less, than these countries - 45 %. Japan almost imports all consumed oil from this region - 90 %. The USA from this region at various times imports from 9 % to 14 % of consumed oil. By the end of 2001 year, import of the USA has reached sizes in 11.6 million barrels a day, or 59 % of total amount of consumption of oil in the country. The basic suppliers of oil in the USA are Canada (1.8 million barrels a day), Saudi Arabia (1.7), Venezuela (1.5) and Mexico (1.4).
Such picture of import of oil from area of Persian gulf in many respects explains the relation of the USA, on the one hand, and Germany, Italy, Japan, etc. the countries with another, to a situation aggravation in this region. Importing has less oil from this region and always having strategic oil reserves, the USA, much less painfully, oil crises, than the European countries, Japan and South Korea transfer.
Apparently from Picture Е, in Russia, on Caspian sea and Central Asia, 6 % from world's reserves lie down, i.e. Speaks about serious strategic influence of this region on world oil extracting and on pricing, not to have, i.e. On the basic components of oil business - world extraction and pricing if this region also influences in the future will be minimum, and, hence, any opposition from the OPEC, for this region, it is pernicious. To speak about considerable influence of these stocks, on economy of the countries whom to belong these oil resources more correctly. Experts assert, that from 6 % hardly 4 % there are more, Russia belong. But deeply those who considers these stocks trouble-free for Russia are mistaken.
In the beginning about geography of minerals of Russia.
Michael Lomonosov wrote: "the Riches of the earth Russian Siberia will grow also the seas ice cold". From Siberia already "cream" have removed, and to deal "with the seas ice cold" - it is unprofitable!
As specifies J. Koryakin, the Doctor of Economics, the academician of the New York academy of sciences known of the international scientific organization, based in 1918, "Е other natural Russian specificity is what is in northern areas from 60 % to 95 % of stocks of the major economic resources: energy carriers, not ordinary metals, jewels, gold, wood, fish Е the Basic developed, and also perspective oil and gas deposits (in a considerable part and coal) are in regions of the Far North. In them one of the main reasons of inevitability of the further rise in prices to their limit approximately in two-three times above world level" is extracted more than 90 % of gas and 75 % of oil Е In it.
J. Koryakin is supported by the well-known great-power nationalist M. Kalashnikov:
"Russia can live in the world market, selling the raw materials? Nonsense! Our raw materials are located in the most inconvenient areas of the world, and to extract it there cost extreme expenses. So on extraction of ton of oil will leave money more than it will be possible to gain from its sale in the world market. (An exception oil and gas deposits on a shelf of Sakhalin make only.) To extract ours oil and gas it is not favourable yet, too затратно. In 1997 me it was possible to do a bit of travelling on petrocrafts of the Tyumen area with the minister of fuel and power Peter Rodionov, and I know, about what I speak. Our oil is much more difficult, rather than oil of Venezuela (where its stocks exceed Russian ones). Gulf of Mexico, - Caspian sea or the Near East. It is necessary to the West to involve these sources of "oil" on full power - and the world oil prices will fall so, that Russia will simply go bankrupt. On the other hand the vice-president of the Duma committee V. Mashinsky has declared, that "the Russian raw export has already reached the ceiling, exit prospects on the finished goods world markets, practically is not present".
There are considerable problems with taken stocks of oil, and they increase every year.
Since the middle of 1993, there is "eating" of stocks of oil. V.Kalyuzhny at conference "CITOGIC - 2004" has declared - "I Can tell, that for last 14 years, indemnification of already used stocks, has made hardly more than 20 %". Here the explanatory - for the account further exploration of old deposits - new is necessary, the Samotlor type - is not present.
According to I. Yusufov, process deterioration of a condition of a raw-material base of oil branch as since 1994 volumes of a gain of stocks of oil compensate its extraction no more than on 80 % proceeds. It is caused by almost 4-fold reduction of volumes of prospecting works on oil owing to considerable reduction of financing. Within the Eastern Siberia prospecting works on oil have been practically stopped. Serious experts assert that to 2010 the total amount of extraction and export of the Russian oil will pass the peak and will start to decrease because the mineral-raw-material base exhaustion goes advancing rates in relation to its reproduction.
The oil companies of Russia, are developed, basically, highly productive stocks (in balance of the companies of their order of 45 %) therefore their share decreases in general, balance of stocks, and the share scavenger stocks increases. Under forecasts of experts by 2010 the share scavenger stocks will reach 70 %.
These figures were confirmed with the head of Ministry for the Power Generating Industry I. Yusufov who has informed, that the share of active stocks of the large companies makes today 45 % and continues to decrease.
To 2005 in Russia will be 70 percent scavenger oil stocks. Well-known, that for extraction of similar stocks considerable means, and other, expensive technology are required.
With reduction of stocks of "easy" oil, extraction of difficultly produced oil promptly rises in price.
In this connection, Andrey Parshev, the writer, the author of the economic best seller Why Russia Is Not America writes - But there is also such opinion, that in 2005 we cannot already extract "oil": quantity of energy, which will need to be spent to extract oil barrel, it will be made even to quantity of energy which contains in this barrel of oil! After the Second World War this parity made 1:50, that is, having spent an oil kilogram, we extracted 50 kg. In the mid-eighties power efficiency has fallen to 1:8, and taking into account delivery to the consumer - to 1:5. And here approximately by 2005 it should fall to 1:1. All "easy" oil we took for a long time already.
According to A.Parshev, active stocks of all oil companies of Russia, make 8 billion tons. At a today's oil recovery in Russia of 400 million tons in a year of these stocks suffices for 20 years.
"Some our companies have such resources on 10, 15, 25 and even 30 years forward. And some companies are already ready to trade in these resources, raising the capitalization at the expense of the country", - Vladimir Putin has declared, acting in the Federation Council. More precisely, at the expense of the Soviet country! These stocks it come from the USSR.
But, thus, it is necessary to notice, that if the Russian oil companies, will put considerable means, at least in local further exploration oil pools it will lay down on oil cost, and there can be problems with profitability of extracted oil.
It is necessary to tell, that a similar parity extraction - a gain of stocks, a problem not only Russia - it is peculiar World oil extracting.
Now in the world the annual gain of stocks of oil (at the expense of again opened deposits) makes 0,8 % from world's reserves! It means, that oil will suffice earth dwellers till 2070. In mankind history similar power accidents already were. And badly came to an end.
Doctor Colin Campbell - one of the most world's largest experts in the field of oil extracting, the adviser of the government of the USA and large oil corporations.
According Campbell, total stocks of oil on a planet make 1,800 Gb (gigabarrel) from which the person already has extracted almost half - 822 Gb. Thus the mankind consumes in a year 22 Gb oil, and reconnoiters only 6. The extraction peak is necessary for 2005 then an exhaustion of world's reserves of oil will make approximately 2 % a year. The next year becomes turning point in mankind history: its economic prosperity in the 20th century, according to the doctor, has been connected before with cheap is easy-extracted oil.
The doctor M. King Hubbert - the known expert according to oil resources, their investigations and an exhaustion, has formulated a rule named "law of Hubbert": "Oil is used as an energy source until to extract it more cheaply, than to receive it by means of the electric power. After that the oil recovery will stop irrespective of what will be its monetary and credit price".
For 58 years, with 1965 for 2003, mankind will consume 80 % of world's reserves of oil. It also is the period of the highest peak of a human civilization according to Hubbert.
Professor Ivanhoe - the adviser of the government of the USA and the large oil companies according to oil stocks of the basic pools, considers, that all oil on the Earth is already found, and "critical date - when global demand will exceed world extraction - it is necessary for the period between 200 - 2010 years. After that rates of extraction will start to decrease. It will occur within a life of the majority of the people living now on a planet. There will come an energy crisis which will mention each earth dweller" further.
The international Association on studying of a conjuncture of oil demand (ASPO) has carried out calculations according to which in 10 years in the world planetary crisis of will begin that the requirement for oil at last will exceed its extraction, is will cause wars more purely the Iraq.
Е Global demand for oil will exceed world extraction in 2010. There will come an energy crisis which will mention each earth dweller Е
The future scenario, in the conditions of development of world oil resources, Alexander Nikonov offers.
And now as mental experiment we "will switch off" oil. The quantity of food will fall ten times. It means hunger Е Yes even if would not fall! On what these mythical foodstuffs from villages to bring up in cities? After all cars and diesel locomotives stand! The mass outcome of the hungry population running from cannibalism from freezing cities "on the earth", will not rescue position: first, on "horse technology" to the people the earth any more will not support such quantity - arable lands on all simply will not suffice. Secondly, already there is no that livestock of horses - at once one million goals in one stage is required. Where them to take? On hippodromes?. Thirdly, who of their townspeople is able to plough and work on the earth? Programmers? Ballerinas? TV presenters? Nuclear engineers?
No, the population part, certainly will survive. But also they will be cut off from each other because some years without repairs will come in worthlessness of road, after all asphalt are heavy fractions of oil Е At people there will be no electricity at all because the electric power lion's share is developed from mineral oil on gas masout stations, and is simple because on power stations not to whom will work.
What to do? To develop coal, hydro-and atomic power stations, yet late, and to pass to electromobiles and an electrotractor? It will not turn out. The matter is that all cars of the world consume energy several times more than make all world power stations. We cannot even suit for hundred years number of power stations on a planet. It is simply unreal. In rich America one time building of power stations in general has been frozen: the expensive. For this reason couple of years back California has faced deficiency of energy and fan switching-off of an electricity.
The greatest stocks of oil are concentrated around Persian Gulf. Some analysts believe, that exhaustion by the civilized world of the oil will allow Arabs-monopolists to untie "oil jihad" against a Christian civilization. Really, why to radical Islamites not to start to dictate to the West the conditions if "civilization blood" is at them in hands?
Coming back to Russia, we will notice, that the group of researchers under the guidance of the deputy minister of power Valery Garipov has made for the first time the forecast of development of oil extracting till 2015 for objects of unallotted fund of bowels and has come to unfavourable conclusions.
As it was found out, working out only 86 of 556 deposits has economic sense. Probable total stocks of these of 86 perspective deposits make all 247.5 million t. Extraction on them in 2015 will not exceed 13.3 million t that makes only 4 % from volume of the Russian extraction.
On clarity degrees, the Russian deposits promptly come nearer to the profitability.
Average clarity of the basic deposits of Russia - 50 %, watercut production - 75 % and average recovery rate chinks of 10 tons/days
This data is given by the president of "LUKOIL" V.Alekperov.
According to academician D. Rundkvist, "oil fields are devastated approximately on 50 %, and largest of them - Samotlor, Romashkinsky - on 65-85 %".
And that in the near future, will begin to collapse Soviet oil a craft, is clear and not to the expert in oil extracting.
By calculations of experts, less than in ten years, in Russia there can come landslide leaving of old funds and closing of the big number of chinks.
Deterioration of a fixed capital in a petroleum-refining industry has exceeded 65 %. More than 70 % of the main oil pipelines are in operation of 20 and more years that is fraught with emergencies on them.
One of the main reasons of that a petroleum industry of Russia, has got to such situation, according to the author, that in it is lost системность and controllability in the state scale is. Each large oil company of Russia, copes, and it can be understood, from the point of view, efficiency and competitiveness of the company, but it at all does not mean, that it promotes effective development of all branch as a whole.
In the oil-extracting industry of Russia the sacred principle for Soviet time - all cycle "geophysical investigation - geological investigation - oil extracting - realization" is broken, in other words, "from a prospecting chink to a gas station", is correlated among themselves.
If the oil recovery it will instantly affect oil refining and mineral oil realization decreases. In turn, if capacities of processing and its depth it will affect all industry including on oil extracting decrease. If, at last, to disregard exploration oil resources gradually decrease. The collective decision is necessary at occurrence of a similar problem - today such collective decision is not present - everyone solves the problems, not reflecting about destiny of "boat".
And, at last, the generalising diagnosis of leading Russian experts.
Conference on a theme "the Mineralno-raw-material base of Russia" which has collected the best oil minds of Russia, has pronounced a severe sentence of domestic oil: already to 2006 г extraction will provide hardly requirements of the country for these raw materials. Including because of export contracts.
The experts who are taking part in conference have come to conclusion, that in 2005-2008 oil extraction will make 460-470 million tons, but 420 million tons will be necessary for domestic consumers, at least. Easier speaking to take out it will be possible only third of that quantity that is exported today. If to consider five - and even 15-year-old contracts on oil export, including on account of repayment of debts of the Russian firms to foreign creditors, suppliers of the equipment - a problem stubborn.
And, at last, the main thing. Those hotheads who dream to see Russia alternative of the OPEC, and such, judging by publications in the Russian press much, SHOULD REMEMBER ALWAYS.
If Russia, for the today, the oil second the exporter in the world, at active support of the West, seriously enters an antagonism from the OPEC Russia should not forget, that the OPEC, possessing considerable reserves, at any moment can put in action the main weapon - will cancel quotas for the countries - participants of the OPEC and then, in a situation who on what is ready, and the majority of these countries, are ready for much, quite probably, that the prices, at such oil раскладе, on oil will fall to 9 dollars for barrel that can appear a mortal blow across Russia and a powerful positive impulse for economy of the USA - it as the main consumer of oil, to receive powerful acceleration, comparable with post-war years in the fifties.
According to oil experts, at the price of 9 dollars for the oil barrel, only one Saudi Arabia can tolerably keep, and all other countries of the OPEC, and not only the OPEC, inevitable economic accident waits.
Very similar, that on a similar step push Russia certain forces out of Russia.
Not so it is safe, apparently, in Russia and with gas.
By estimations of experts the volume газодобычи in Russia can decrease for 5 years on 50 - 70 billion in cubic meter
Alesya Chichkin writes, "Occupying one of leading places on export of natural gas to the world, Russia, nevertheless, constantly tests its shortage. Than the similar paradox is caused? What it is malicious intention or fatal inevitability?
Extracting annually about 450 billion cubic meter of gas, Russia over third sends for export. By estimations of "Gazprom" and Ministry for the Power Generating Industry of the Russian Federation in 2008-2010 export will make almost 40 % gas production, that will increase shortage of gas in native fatherland with present 22-25 to 35-37 billion cubic meter per year ". Thus it is not necessary to forget, the gas production in Russia is considered, almost the most expensive in the world. Experts assert, that the cost price of gas from new deposits will be in 3 - 4 times above, than extracted gas.
Bright example. In 2002 in "Gazprom" 170 billion roubles is invested, and extraction increases from 512 billion cubic meter. To 521 billion cubic meter, i.e. all on 9 billion cubic meter. To experts from these figures it is clear, all complexity of a situation in "Gazprom".
And it can happen not because gas stocks run low, and because of a full deterioration of the operational equipment.
In New Urengoy from the Yamal bowels it is extracted already 10 billion cubic meter of natural gas.
Figure, certainly, fantastic. In summary, instead of prosperity, "Gazprom" collapses!
Selling gas in Europe for 110 dollars at the expense of what it also keeps "наплаву", in home market, "Gazprom" sells it for 15 dollars, that, naturally, conducts to its destruction.
According to the director of Institute of power researches of the Russian Academy of Sciences A.Makarova, "strategy of power development of Russia till 2020 provides a rise in prices for gas in 3-3,5 times. Otherwise by 2007, deficiency of power resources will not allow to develop to economy".
Tragedy in that if "Gazprom" will essentially rise in the price for gas in home market all economy of Russia will collapse. Here such vicious circle!
Andrey Neshchadin, the chief executive of fund "Expert institute", speaks about features of the Russian pricing:
"If the prices, suppose, on energy carriers reach world, it is not necessary to forget, that we - the country of evergreen tomatoes, 62 percent of territory at us is heated about 8 months, therefore our industry in the world markets becomes noncompetitive".
Political and financial activity of "Gazprom" is far from a transparency, and first of all.
As writes S.Novoprudsky, "Russia - the unique country of the world where pumped over on a pipe and extracted gas is measured in billions cubic metre, instead of in power equivalents. As pressure in a pipe can be regulated, you never precisely learn, how many gas has passed through a pipe".
The surprising fact was resulted by Putin on "Gazprom": "Extraction and transportation of gas to border manages for the buyer twice more cheaply, than its realisation. And where this money?". The question as the known classic of a platform, of course, interesting spoke, but the answer to it, is known.
The situation with the Russian gas, is found by Turkmen gas which, not having an exit on the world markets (and still very long will not have) a little, is on sale Russia at half price (for 50 dollars - half in dollars, another - in the Russian goods). "You, a wolf! You the most predatory wolf!" - the President of Turkmenia Niyazov, ¬¤хереву spoke concerning this price расклада. But this quantity of Turkmen gas, is like flogging a dead horse. And, not accidentally, Russia, every year, increase deliveries of the Kazakhstan and Uzbek gas.
The heavy situation has developed in the coal industry of Russia - a significant amount of mines work on a profitability limit.
The situation in Russia with atomic power stations does not cause optimism. "The nuclear bombs giving light" - so academician Yablokov has characterised atomic power stations of Russia.
From the condition of oil and gas extraction industry of Russia done above the analysis, spent by the author, unequivocally follows, that for Russia to result in an appropriate order the oil and gas economy, the vital stability in the country, and considerable investments.
Not to manage Russia and without the aid of the large western oil companies - "sharks" of capitalism.
"In 5-10 years the basic part of manufacture of oil in Russia will be carried out by the international companies. Thus one-two Russian oil companies have potential to become international" - Michael Khodorkovsky, the head of YUKOS has told.
Khodorkovsky's way has begun with this phrase in Lefortovo.
In such, or nearly so such, there are also other important branches of Russia.
The analysis will be incomplete if not to tell about the Russian potential of natural resources as a whole.
Natural riches in Russia are, and they are considerable. They it is much more, than in all European countries, together taken. And, not casually, many European countries with hope look at Russia, as on the European raw-material base that causes the big displeasure of the USA.
Deputies of the State Duma of Russia assert, that to Russia it is necessary natural minerals on 300 billion dollars, and to the USA, China - on 15 billion dollars.
According to "Roskomgradmetal" the general potential value of stocks of minerals of Russia makes 28,560 billion dollars. From them on a gas share it is necessary 9,190, oil and a condensate - 4,481, ferrous metals - 1,962, colour and rare metals - 1,807, precious metals and diamonds - 272, other minerals - 4,193, uranium - 4, coal and slates - 6,651.
According to Jury Koryakin, Doctor of Economics, the academician of the New York academy of sciences known of the international scientific organization, based in 1918, "Е stocks of the extracted uranium available in Russia possess power potential in 15 billion in kW/h. Power potential of a weapon nuclear material - 12-14 billion in kW/h. It is so much, how many can develop all our power stations for 35 years. These stocks can save 7 billion cubic meter of gas of which would suffice for export to present volume to the Western Europe within 110 years".
Employees of Plehanov institute calculated that it is necessary for reorganization of economy of Russia 10 years and 2 billion dollars. In this case in 10 years the average salary can make 250 dollars a month, and pension - 100 dollars.
E. Yasin considers that "requirements of the Russian economy for investments on structural reorganization the next 15 years make 800 - 900 billion dollars".
It is necessary to add the extremely unsatisfactory demographic situation in Russia. Scientists assert, that by 2050, Russians will decrease to 110 million inhabitants.
The ethnic structure of Russia will change also. Today in Russia of 20 million Moslems, basically тюрок, and the percent of Moslems, grows every year. 19 subjects of the Russian Federation - Muslim republics.
Naturally, in 2050, Moslems will be much more. Russia is the unique state in "eight", and not only in it, uncertainty of position and which prospects, are so obvious.
Certain circles in Russia endlessly assert, that in the world were and there are any Masonic circles, which only think of how to destroy Russia. If also there are such Masonic circles, that, of course, it is improbable, their secret representatives are such politicians as Zhirinovsky, Ragozin's type and to it similar which support to the detriment of interests of Russia invented by them "southern advanced posts", in all problems of Russia accuse the West etc.
"At all I do not know, that we did without enemy intrigues, without foreign пагубы which pursues us continually. What problem undertake - here as here a foreign trace. And that from us it is necessary to all of them?" - writes V. Starchevsky.
As has witty noticed one of the western bankers: "If the West, going on cooperation with Russian, also pursued any aims, at all disorder of their economy. With it Russian safely consult".
Political "hawks" in Russia, politicians who suggest to struggle, first of all, with corruption and bureaucracy, and are proof supporters of liberal economy, name the American agents.
Actually all just what isn't needed - politicians of type of Zhirinovsky, Ragozin, Zatulin, Mitrofanov, Shamanov, etc., calling for rigid confrontation from the USA and with the Muslim world, is ready more, in practice, pro-American, than, let us assume, Yavlinsky.
These politicians for ¬ѕ the USA and CIA simply find - for these organizations always vital the Russian politicians calling for confrontation from the USA. And to struggle against the Muslim world, Russia, under the pretext of struggle against terrorism, accurately pushes the USA.
And, that is characteristic, all political forces, supporters of a hard line under the relation of the USA, and not only the USA, are the obvious and latent enemies of Azerbaijan, and hot allies of Armenia. Instead of endlessly pushing Russia on every possible oppositions, to these misters, it was good - to familiarize with the statement of great Russian scientist D.Mendeleev.
In 1906 it has put forward one of the first-ever geopolitical theories in whom has proved a special site of Russia. He spoke so: "the Country after all our special, standing between a hammer of Europe and an anvil of Asia, forced, anyhow, to pull together them".
D.Mendeleev always searched for ways, for economic improvement of Russia.
D.Mendeleev fruitfully worked and in Baku, and has left about itself kind memory. He has offered the first, to spend "керосинопровод" Baku-Batumi. About southern "advanced post" of Russia, he did not speak.
These misters, especially Zhirinovsky, hate the Azerbaijan people, not stopping before what, express the relation, publicly. Zhirinovsky for quite some time now, has started to offend, at the slightest pretext, publicly the Azerbaijan people, not understanding, that it, thereby, offends also Russian people which suffers such вице - the speaker. Zhirinovsky to trifles, willingly tells to correspondents the biography ("mum Russian, the father the lawyer". And the father - Volf Isaakovich Eidelstein), but never recollects the stay in Turkish prison where it has got, for propagation in Turkey of communism. And was - interestingly to learn, that has occurred in a reality, with very young, white and chubby, to the beautiful effeminate person, Zhirinovsky, in Turkish prison, among hot and sexual ¤нычар. It is thought, told, the author has not offended Zhirinovsky, and has only reminded it of the pleasant. This small, but the important lyrical digression!
Only one example on Zhirinovsky's economic knowledge - "Е Where to take currency? And it is very simple - within a year, two times to increase an oil recovery. Here to you and currency Е".
About Zhirinovsky's political bribability, Mitrofanov, legends go, but we will result only one, but already painfully informative fact.
All know Zhirinovsky's relations and its party to oligarchs - to take away money, to arrest, shoot - and it is far not the full list of words to the oligarchs proceeding from Zhirinovsky, ћитрофанова and other party members of "LDPR".
And, here, to all Russia, and not only Russia, on television channel "NTV", the second person in "LDPR", the deputy of the State Duma of Russia, Mitrofanov, having put on the form of the English football club "Chelsea", belonging to the known Russian oligarch, advertises this club and acts of the oligarch.
Well-known, for similar advertising, huge money pays in cash. Without intermediaries.
Yes, no doubt, in the world is, and very powerful forces, forces which want, by an example of the USSR, will destroy Russia.
"Yes, we will allow Russia to be power, but one country - the USA" will be empire only.
Acting on radio station "Echo of Moscow", on a direct question of one of listeners, whether the truth, that this expression belongs to it, Clinton has left from the answer.
The secretary of Tripartite commission Zbignev Brzezinski speaks:
"Russia is the defeated power. It has lost titanic struggle. And to speak" it there was not Russia, and Soviet Union "- means, to run from a reality. It was Russia named Soviet Union. She has thrown down a challenge of the USA. It has been won. Now it is not necessary подпитывать to illusion about великодержавности to Russia. It is necessary to discourage to such views... Russia will be shattered and under guardianship".
The answer to these insinuations one - a stable civil Russian society, economic strong, equipped with the advanced arms - Russia.
And, the main thing thus, and it deep, and versatile economists in Russia, such as Yavlinsky well understand, Gref, Gaydar, Zhukov, etc. not to force event, and gradually to gather forces, after that economic chaos which have left after itself, everyone in own way, Gorbachev and Yeltsin. At those high-ranking Russian functionaries whom as, for example, Chubays, say, that is a little more, and Russia will be again great power, it is necessary to look for the personal account in "Bank of New York".
The former Minister of Finance of Russia Vavilov, being in the USA, has been caused in FBI and interrogated. Having returned to Russia, he has declared, that if Yeltsin, Chubays, Tchernomyrdin, Vyakherev, Nemtsov will appear in the USA they will be arrested. On other details, he has not informed.
In the relation "поспеша¤ not to hasten", a fine example is China. Very few people doubts, that the future China, the challenge of the USA will throw down. Military experts assert, that at desire, China can in nearest future, reach the military man of parity from the USA. But, пам¤ту¤ history from the USSR, it does not do it, and apparently on its foreign policy actions, is not going to do it - on the first and the subsequent places for China - economy. According to G. Gref, for a year, by the western companies it is invested to China so much, how many for eight years, to Russia. And, that is necessary to add thus, investments into China, go not to raw branches, as to Russia, and in different industries.
In other words, investments go to workers and engineers, that, as is known, in such cases, conducts to strengthening of industrial and military potential of the country.
If at Yeltsin, Russia promptly slid in a precipice, and it plundered, as could, at Putin, having come in itself, Russia has stopped and has stood, in a political interval from a hymn of the USSR, to the Andreyev flag.
Here with such difficult, with "unpredictable past", and, even more, with the unpredictable future, the state which, under favorable circumstances, can become power supply sources of all Europe and that can happen under adverse conditions to speak it would not be desirable, it is necessary to adjoin to Azerbaijan.
The situation in the future in Russia, and on such important indicator, as mass behaviour is unpredictable. In days of the Karabakh crisis, it has painfully struck across Baku.
As the director of Institute of sociology of parliamentarianism Nuzgar Betanelly noted, "quantitative results of interrogations in itself mean nothing. Simple fixing, ascertaining of the facts or figures does not reflect, does not explain essence and contradictions of mass behaviour. Judge: within 300 years Russians swore fidelity to Romanov's House, 10 centuries glorified the Christ, 74 years declared adherence to socialism and the CPSU. And more recently (March, 1991) 72 % of the population of Soviet Union have expressed on a referendum for preservation of the USSR. And, nevertheless, all it has not prevented known succession of events..."
It, always it is necessary to remember all, to especially "hot" heads from opposition ".
And, at last, about distressful Azerbaijan.
In the geostrategic relation (from the point of view, both Moscow, and Washington) Azerbaijan is "the key state" on South Caucasus for possesses oil deposits in Caspian sea, occupies strategic position between Russia and region of Persian gulf and is the central state of the future transport highways and oil pipelines between the Central Asia and Europe.
The important circumstance is also that Azerbaijan will keep the geostrategic value at possible political changes in region while, let us assume, that if Armenia to join the western block Russia will forget about it for the second day.
From all countries of South Caucasus, there are 10 times more Russians in Azerbaijan than in any other neighbouring country. Russian-Azerbaijan business develops effectively. Goods turnover between the countries grows from year to year. Azerbaijan should further cooperate with Russia in economic sphere in even greater volume, since it is mutually advantageous, except for cooperation with Chubays, this man is just bound to stab Azerbaijan in the Baku at some stage!
In Yeltsin's times that were hard for Azerbaijan, despite Yeltsin's negative altitude to Azerbaijan, Baku did not take a single step that could damage the relations with Russia. Moreover, H. Aliev repeatedly called Russia publicly for participation in all major projects developed in Baku, with participation of Western countries. He repeatedly suggested that Russia take part in the global project "Baku-Ceyhan" and "Baku-Erzerum". And what Russia?
The author was a happenstance witness of the dialogue between Azerbaijan correspondents and Kazimirov at the ceremony of signing of the "Contract of the Century".
Correspondents asked him what he thought of the event. "I feel somehow uncomfortable in commenting on all that is going on here," he answered. "And why then have you arrived in Baku?" the annoying correspondent continued. "On private affairs," Kazimirov answered playfully. He was lying. He came to report everything to Moscow. After his departure, a mean letter of the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Russia A. Kozyrev came from Moscow, in which he called the authorities of Russia to take drastic measures in relation to Azerbaijan for signing the "Contract of the Century".
For participation in signing of the "Contract of the Century", the minister of power of Russia Shafranik was summoned to the Public Prosecutor's Office of Russia.
The first assistant to the prime minister of Russia Boris Nemtsov in Moscow signs on 4 Julythe agreement "On exploration, development and sharing arrangement of output in the Azerbaijan block including "Kapaz" deposit in the Caspian Sea", and several months later Yeltsin proudly says to Niyazov that he is going to disavow it, without notifying Baku in advance, and boasts on all Russian television channels.
The following episode became property of publicity. In April,1999 at the summit of heads of the CIS states the president of Azerbaijan Heydar Aliev approached Yeltsin in the lobby and asked, "Boris Nikolaevich, how is the investigation on the Armenian weapon going?" Yeltsin answered, "Heydar, you see, I thought you'd already forgotten about it all. Let's better talk about something pleasant." And further the events assumed the expected direction. The mysterious death of Rokhlin remains and probably will remain undisclosed. Rokhlin exposed illegal one billion dollars worth armament supplies to Armenia by Russia. M. Poltoranin says, "I had a neighbour in my summer residence, Rokhlin, we often went to see each other. He was the only politician who wished to make something real. And he was killed. It was not his wife, I know who killed him! Well, so what? Has Russia risen for the sake of Rokhlin?"
In his book Who Is to Profit from It? devoted to Rokhlin's mysterious death, the lawyer Kucherena makes very transparent hints.
When Russian politicians, and especially military, speak about the importance of the Russian bases in Armenia, they do not speak, whether deliberately or due to misunderstanding, about one important detail.
Giving up its naval base in the Karman (Vietnam), Russia leaves its last naval base abroad.
Repair base in Tarus (Syria) is of neither tactical, nor strategic significance.
Russia, under rigid pressure of the USA, also gave up its base on Cuba which traced actions of the USA, and also events in the region of Iran and Iraq. This 3 billion dollars worth base cost Russia 300 million dollars annually, and it was already more than Russia could afford.
American newspapers call Lurdes "one of largest of interception centres that have ever existed". And Raul Castro, the Minister of Defence of Cuba and the brother of comandante Fidel said in 1993 that it had been from Lurdes that the Soviet Union had been receiving 75% of its intelligence information.
Under rigid pressure of NATO, Latvia demanded from Russia to close the radiolocation station in its territory and achieved the aim. After the Russian experts had left the radiolocation station, the Latvian authorities, in the presence of honourable foreign visitors, blew it up, thereby, underlining the importance of this anti-NATO object.
In connection by these forced steps of Russia, the role Gabala radiolocation station, which taps the most important, southern direction today, increases considerably. By estimations of Russian experts, construction of such object, at today's prices, can cost 5 billion dollars. Russia does not have so much money, and it will be needing Gabala radiolocation station for a long time.
Only the USA can afford building powerful base Bonstill in Kosovo, at the cost of 8 billion dollars per year.
And of course, comparing rent with that for the base in Lurdes, 10-15 million dollars a year is a ridiculous rent for such object, the importance of which, in connection with last steps of Russia, has increased many times. As is known, price of information is much higher today than that of energy carriers. And price of the information similar to that received by Gabala radiolocation station is ten times higher than usual.
Besides, from the point of view of tapping the South, the geographical location Gabala radiolocation station is perfect. Russia has hardly another such important object in South Caucasus as Gabala radiolocation station
The purpose of military bases in Armenia is known, and in Georgia, military bases carry out rather local and tactical than strategic tasks - they bring an instability element in Georgia. When high Russian authorities speak about various aspects of the Russian-Azerbaijan relations, they keep silent about Gabala radiolocation station, deliberately belittling its importance. But they should not! Baku knows well its importance for Russia, and, what is important, treat the matter with understanding.
We cannot but touch upon another aspect related to these military objects of Russian in South Caucasus. A considerable number of Armenian military men serves on Russian military bases in Armenia. Civilians also work there. Something from the armament of bases often comes the way of Armenia. And most importantly, those Russian bases help further keeping of territories taken by Armenia from Azerbaijan. The presence of a Russian radiolocation station in the territory of Azerbaijan does not produce such effect. Even that global information Gabala radiolocation station gives out is not of much importance to Azerbaijan, as its opponent is in clear view, at arm's length. At the same time, that Russian radiolocation station gives Baku only problems, both environmental and international ones. It affected adversely the relationship between Azerbaijan and the fraternal Turkey.
And this is understandable, since Turkey is "X-rayed" by Gabala radiolocation station.
Passing to the main issue, we cannot say that the political and social situation in Azerbaijan furthers the solution of the Karabakh problem.
In the fifties, Soviet cinemas demonstrated a French feature film Le Salaire De La Peur (The Wages of Fear). The story line was simple. For certain fee, by common trucks, unemployed drivers transported nitroglycerine, which is highly inflammable, as we know, to put out fire in the oil well. The main character was played by the famous French chansonnier Yves Montand. Though they had been driving at 5-7 km/h, they all except for Yves Montand exploded on the way. The final scene shows him jubilantly driving down a mountain road. He swerves recklessly and intentionally, having cheated death so many times on the same road. He takes one corner too fast and plunges to his death many feet below. In the early nineties, Azerbaijan was "stuffed with nitroglycerine" and any wrong step could have led to a terrible explosion. H. Aliyev, speaking in chess terms, managed to keep the statehood of the country that was hanging on the brink of abyss with the only possible political steps and consolidate it. Having stood the powerful pressure on the part of Russia concerning Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline, he clearly defined the oil strategy of the country for the future. Having thrown a dreadful burden off their shoulders, people are rushing at full speed, solving different problems, which are far from the Karabakh problem, according to the granted opportunities. Some, who are somehow called oligarchs, rapidly increase the number of their mansions with invariable invitation of foreign architects; some, making up the majority, struggle for bread for themselves and their families from morning till night; others wait for their time to go into the street, and others, not the least useful group of society, leave Motherland searching for a better fate, and so on.
Before the world-wide attack of terrorists, the gap between the rich and the poor was considered as the main danger to the world. In Azerbaijan, this danger still remains at present and it does not further the solution of Karabakh problem.
In the modern situation in the world, we should not pin special hopes on neighbouring countries - they all have their own serious problems, and problems of Baku worry them not first of all.
Turkey is the only country of the region that supports Azerbaijan unambiguously and firmly in practice. But Turkey is a member of NATO and strives after Europe and will not make rash movements in case if military operations between Azerbaijan and Armenia are resumed, it will coordinate its steps with its NATO allies.
The stand of Iran in the Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict is well-known and requires no special comments.
Negotiations with Armenia have been conducted for many years through the mediation of different countries.
The main and indisputable argument of the Azerbaijan party at meetings with the international organizations and discussion of the Karabakh problem is justice. From the view of universal, moral and other values, justice is on the side Azerbaijan, the country exposed to aggression on the part Armenia. But unfortunately, the situation is different today. We hear more and more often from diplomats of different countries, that "justice is a relative concept" and has nothing to do with the elements of peace process.
Justice in the world today, as it has been since the creation of man, is based on Machiavelli's principle, "Only an armed prophet wins, an unarmed is defeated". And, as Napoleon said, "Big battalions are always right." There is another variant of triumph of justice - we should find a powerful sponsor like Israel. We should not seek other justice in the modern world. To be impartial, we should say that Western diplomats have their own view of justice in Azerbaijan and it is unfortunately not unreasonable. Their countries had gone through ordeal before they became stable and strong states. And when they see that the country that lost 20% of its territory ranks among the most corrupted world countries, millions of refugees live in inhuman conditions, while many-storied houses and villas in Baku grow by leaps and bounds and 70% of screen time is given to entertaining shows, then they probably consider the fact of freezing of Karabakh problem as fair!
We often can hear that considerable oil profits will further the liberation of the occupied lands.
Oil profits, depending on their use, can really further the settlement of Karabakh problem and can finally bury it, oil dollars are a double-edged currency!
The world will never recognize "NKR" as an independent country. If it happens it would means that "the high and mighties", due to some obscure reasons that only they know, approve separatism in the whole world, i.e. "political AIDS". World wars of the past will look like toys in that case.
But it does not mean that those who solve world problems are ready to solve Karabakh one created by separatists within the frames of common international law on the territorial integrity of states.
We could continue such reasoning endlessly but it is just the statement of the problem and not its solution.
There is the only way to liberate the lost lands. As the profound philosopher Yevgeny Schwarz said, "To defeat a dragon, one must become a dragon." It is does not fully accords with universal moral but the point is correct! In the military and political sense it means that to defeat Armenia, we mean, to return our lands and not to wash out boots in Sevan, which is the dream of populists, we must be stronger than it in all respects, since Armenia acts like a dragon towards Azerbaijan!
Efficient economy, strong army, united society with reasonable degree of corruption, the society where middle class will play the leading part, these are the main components of solution of Karabakh problem. We do not have to look for other ways, there are no such!
Another unhealthy factor in the Azerbaijan society is the level of mutual hatred of the authorities and the opposition exceeds hatred for the aggressors, while it should be quite the reverse.
Populism painfully hits on the Karabakh problem, distracting the people, as a drug, from the main problem. They can beat any Armenian before cameras of "independent" television channels, making themselves again appear unattractive to the world community, or make PR-actions of the arrival of several Armenian officers in Baku, these actions have nothing to do with the Karabakh problem.
The situation in the region is unstable and tends to multifactor change, and as they say in such cases, "the situation is close to the maximum entropy". The determined Soviet models ("enemy - neutral - friend") have not been working for a long time already; the situation can be described only by the dynamic probabilistic models adequate to the changing situation in the region. Without formalization of the process and, whenever possible, its quantitative estimation, it is impossible, in modern conditions, to make correct decisions in an ambiguous situation. To carry this out in practice, it is necessary to have, a highly-qualified analytical group equipped with advanced computer programs.
The last step in the realization of all these conditions must not necessarily be the war with Armenia, it is more likely that Armenia will be more complaisant!
Such is the reality of today, it is severe but it is clear! Certainly, much in region will depend in the future on the stand of the "the high and mighties". But Azerbaijan also can and should say its weighty word. Without its sound word which should have real meaning, the Karabakh problem cannot be solved.